The shock to Russia’s GDP will be similar to the 1998 crisis

The shock to Russia’s GDP will be similar to the 1998 crisis

2/2

© Reuters. General view of the Moscow International Business Center, also known as “Moscow-City”, as the spread of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) continues in Moscow, Russia, May 14, 2020. REUTERS / Maxim Shemetov

2/2

LONDON (Reuters) – JPMorgan (NYSE 🙂 said on Thursday that it expects the Russian economy to shrink by 35% in the second quarter and 7% in 2022 with an economy that has suffered a decline in economic production comparable to the 1998 crisis.

“Russia’s GDP is now expected to fall from a peak to a low of around 12%, compared to the crises of 1998 (~ 10%) and 2008 (~ 11%) and the shock of COVID-19 (~ 9%)” , Anatoly Shal from JPMorgan said in a note to clients.

This year, JPMorgan expected a decline in exports by about 13%, domestic demand by about 10% and imports by about 30%.

“What is clear is that Russia’s growing economic and political isolation will lead to lower growth in the long run,” Shal added.

“We expect Russia’s growth to be around zero next year (up from -1.0% earlier) and a growth trend of around 1% in the long run.”

Disclaimer: Fusion Media I would like to remind you that the information contained on this website is not necessarily real-time or accurate. All CFDs (stocks, indices, futures) and Forex prices are not provided by stock exchanges, but by market makers, so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual market price, which means that prices are indicative and not suitable for trading. Therefore, Fusion Media assumes no responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of using this information.

Fusion Media or anyone involved with Fusion Media will not accept any liability for loss or damage resulting from reliance on information including data, quotations, charts and buy / sell signals contained on this website. Please be fully informed about the risks and costs associated with trading in financial markets, this is one of the riskiest possible forms of investment.



Source link

Leave a Reply